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Installed Capacity of 800 GW: Development Prospects of China’s Solar Photovoltaic Industry Under the New Economic Normal Towards 2030

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The sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry is directly linked to China’s socio-economic progress. Supported by the green and low-carbon development philosophy, China’s economy has undoubtedly maintained positive momentum under the “new normal,” providing ample room for the development and application of photovoltaic renewable energy.

Currently, the annual electricity consumption of the entire society has reached 6 trillion kWh. With a photovoltaic installed capacity of 100 GW, the average annual power generation utilization is 1,200 hours, producing 120 billion kWh of electricity annually. This accounts for only 2% of the total electricity consumption, representing a relatively small proportion.

China’s Green Development Path: Photovoltaic Expansion Targets Under the New Economic Normal
 
Against the backdrop of China’s green development model under the “New Economic Normal,” the nation is committed to sustainable energy utilization. By 2030, total electricity consumption is projected to increase by 60%, reaching 9.6 trillion kWh annually. Aligned with international and domestic action goals for renewable energy adoption, China aims to supply 10% of its electricity from photovoltaic (PV) sources by 2030, generating 960 billion kWh annually, with a total installed PV capacity of 800 GW.
 
Based on current trends, achieving the 2020 target of 200 GW of installed PV capacity is unquestionable, with an average annual addition of 30 GW. To reach the 800 GW target by 2030, an average of 60 GW must be installed annually after 2020.
 
Driven by national policies encouraging PV development, the 200 GW target by 2020, though challenging, is attainable given the overwhelming enthusiasm for renewable energy investments across society. This momentum will not only overcome existing obstacles but also facilitate the transition to grid parity and continuous technological advancement by 2020, laying a critical foundation for the subsequent annual installation of 60 GW.
 

However, achieving the post-2020 target of 60 GW per year faces three major bottlenecks and challenges:

  1. System Integration and Grid Stability: While overall demand provides sufficient room for growth, the intermittent nature of PV power poses challenges such as regional curtailmen and grid fluctuations. Addressing these issues requires truly interconnected cross-regional power grids, balanced regional absorption capabilities, multi-energy complementary technologies, and supportive policy frameworks.

  2. Land Availability and Policy Coordination: Beyond promoting distributed PV systems, achieving an annual installation of 60 GW necessitates resolving land constraints. This involves refining PV land-use policies and leveraging the vast land and solar resources of five western provinces. After addressing current curtailment issues by 2020, State Grid should develop a forward-looking national absorption corridor plan to support the installation of at least 200 GW of PV capacity in these western regions by 2030.

  3. Sustainable Green Financing Mechanisms: It is essential to systematically evaluate existing financial support schemes for PV and integrate international and domestic green finance incentives to eliminate funding barriers for green energy projects.

Proactive planning is crucial. As the advantages of PV energy gain broader recognition across society, the realization of the 60 GW annual target post-2020 hinges on whether sustainable solutions to these three challenges can be established before 2020.